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Days 245-249: Curf-whew!

The days continue to blur together with names and cases and tracking and tracing as we do our best to stop the spread of this disease. It is hard. It is challenging. It is not impossible.


We have tools that have been here since the beginning. Stay at home unless you have an essential reason to leave. Wash your hands. Physically distance. Wear a face covering*.

*this does not include the hold in your t-shirt where your head pokes out



We know these things. Moreover, there are so many reasons for hope on the horizon.

Moderna has seen a successful vaccine trial in addition to the vaccine Pfizer is manufacturing and their success rate has approached 95% for their COVID-19 vaccine


Help is truly on the way for us in Ohio and across the country. The bad news is that the situation in the Midwest is deteriorating and we have to *actively* turn this around a second time. The main goal? Outrun. Outlast.


*cue George Washington from Hamilton*



We need to buy time for our medical system, our economy, and all the people we love so very much. In Ohio, we have the wrong kind of trend right now. In a snapshot, this is what the the progression has looked like in the Buckeye state:


Daily Ohio reports of new cases in 2020:

1/13/2020 7 new cases

2/13/2020 2 new cases

3/13/2020 158 new cases

4/13/2020 514 new cases

5/13/2020 605 new cases

6/13/2020 571 new cases

7/13/2020 1,804 new cases (second spike)

8/13/2020 992 new cases

9/13/2020 605 new cases


In one month, here is the change in how daily cases are rapidly increasing:

10/11/2020 1,412 new cases (beginning of second surge)

10/12 /2020 2,484 new cases

10/26/2020 3,606 new cases

11/02/2020 5,131 new cases

11/10/2020 6,508 new cases

11/12/2020 7,101 new cases



We are now averaging between 7,000-8,000+ cases daily. We have not plateaued even remotely. We are in territory we have never been in before. All counties are now “high incidence” as defined by the CDC, and even the lowest incidence county is more than double the number to meet the bare minimum criteria to be considered high incidence, which is what leads to community spread.


Another way to look at this is with hospitalizations. We need our hospitals up and running for medical events other than just COVID-19, as they have always intended.


On October 13th, we had around 1000 people with COVID in Ohio hospitals.

On November 5th we had 2000 people.

November 12th was 3000.

November 17th, still climbing up to 3648 (897 of those patients are in the ICU). Speaking of the ICU, last month we had 280 people in ICU beds; as of today we have 897 people.


And again I say:


Doctors and health care professionals are closely monitoring the situation in their local hospitals. That being said, all counties in Ohio are still "High Incidence" Counties. The lowest incidence county is still over 200 cases per 100,000 residents. Highest numbers are 10-13 times the CDC threshold for High Incidence (Putnam: 1323; Mercer, 1265; Allen, 995) This dramatically increases the chance for community spread in these counties This increase cannot be accounted for by more testing alone. It took us five months for Ohio to reach our first 100,000 cases of COVID-19. We have seen another hundred thousand cases come up in the last 3 weeks. Although we are testing more, which is good y'all, cases are rising exponentially higher. Our test positivity rate?


Test positivity rate: 13.8%


So what can we do? A retail mask order went out last week and inspectors are starting to be sent out to dispatch. More people are now wearing masks in retail establishments and compliance is slowly rising to protect everybody. The governor's office reissued orders for gatherings of more than 10 people especially with wedding receptions and funerals to not be permitted except with very strict precautions. Those events must follow restaurant protocols (all guests masked) at a bare minimum.


Back in the spring, we had a shutdown and right now the shutdown is not being reinstated, but we are looking to reduce the chance of people encountering those with the virus. Wear your mask and reduce contacts.



To this end, Gov. DeWine signed a curfew into effect beginning Thursday, November 19th. This curfew will last from 10PM until 5AM across the state of Ohio for a 21-day trial period.

Retail businesses must close and all residents should be in their homes after 10 PM.


Of course there are a few exceptions to this curfew such as:

  • Those who are working

  • Those who are buying food or ordering carryout/delivery

  • Those in an emergency or those seeking medical treatment


While many people may focus on the "severity" of the curfew, Gov. DeWine is also asking everyone to do one thing to reduce your contact with others every day.


Some examples being:

  • Don’t watch the OSU game with friends, but stay at home to watch it and get in on a live groupchat

  • Wear a mask to church or join a virtual bible study/satsang gathering

  • Call a friend and talk to them

  • Write a letter

  • Consolidate your trips (especially at places like grocery stores)

Everyone can and should come up with their own list and do at least one thing to reduce their contact with others across the state. A good goal might be to cut down contacts by 25% (not looking to replicate Springtime numbers but at least get close.


The responsibility for the solution falls to all of us. We need a slowdown, not a shutdown over the course of the next three weeks. 21-day curfew was the plan that had the least disruptive effect on our lives while also providing real relief for those health care workers who are suffering.





Chief Medical Officer Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff also offered some thoughts today, reiterating much of the same common sense policies we have been following for months. But. They do bear repeating. Be vigilant (constant vigilance, Potter!). Protest the ones you love. Make sure your mental health is a priority, not a fairytale luxury. We need all of us at our best.


It will be inconvenient, but we will get through it together. Thank you to all those who have been, or will continue to be, making sacrifices. As Mr. Rogers' mother always said, "Look for the helpers."



“Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but nobody is entitled to their own facts.”


Prepare, don't panic,

-Allison


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